Energy Market Update: March 2026

The Shipley Energy Commercial Solutions Team is excited to share the March Energy Market Update to inform you of trends, weather, and other factors impacting the energy market.

Read the February 2026 Energy Market Update ->

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• Petroleum Update
• Electricity Update
• Natural Gas Update

Petroleum & Refined Products

Due to the recent operations in Iran, liquid fuels markets have hit session highs not seen since the peak of the Russia Ukraine war. These our astounding price moves, not just because of the outright values, but due to the speed of which these prices were achieved. Last week crude and refined products NYMEX contracts had their highest weekly percentage gain on record, dating back to the early 1980s. March 9, 2026 saw further extreme volatile prices moves with Crude hitting an overnight high of 119.48, HO diesel 4.4715, RBOB gasoline 3.2205. Futures prices have more than doubled in 60 days driven by extreme cold weather of last month and closing of the Strait of Hormuz which 20% of the world crude oil traverses daily. It is still early to call a peak top in crude prices but the recent price action technicals point towards an interim top complimented by a significant reversal of intraday highs. At time of writing APR HO is at 3.65, 82cpg below the overnight highs!

In 2022 HO saw few very large reversals off peak highs, most notably -$1.46 April 2022 and -$1.30 reversal on March 9, 2022 – 4 years to the day. These were considered massive moves in the history of context. All signs are pointing to much higher retail prices at the pump, potentially $5-5.50 diesel and $4.00 regular gasoline. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the further exponential damage will be done to the availability of global supply of crude and refined products.

The G7 countries are considering a joint release of oil from reserves, potentially as much as 400 million barrels. UK finance minister Reeves is also exploring further action on distillates.

Details include:

1. The release would be potentially coordinated by the International Energy Agency.
2. Three G7 countries, including the US, have so far expressed support for the idea.
3. US officials believe a joint release in the range of 300m-400m barrels is appropriate.
4. G7 countries currently hold 1.2 billion barrels of oil in the reserve.

The G7’s proposed release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves is framed as a major but temporary “political painkiller” for the oil market shock caused by the conflict, not a cure addressing root causes.

• Global oil consumption runs ~103 million barrels per day; the conflict has disrupted an estimated 4–6 million barrels/day (from suspended Iranian exports, Iraqi production collapsing from 4.3 to 1.3 million bpd, Kuwait force majeure, Saudi diversions, and effective Strait of Hormuz closure).
• At that disruption scale, the 400 million barrels would cover roughly 67–100 days (about 2–3 months) of the supply gap — a buffer the market quickly priced in, which is why oil prices fell from +30% to +12% intraday despite the announcement.
• The market’s reaction (still holding +12% even with the largest reserve intervention in history announced) signals that traders do not expect a near-term resolution to restore full supply flows.
• Historical comparison: The 2022 Biden SPR release of 180 million barrels (phased over months) delivered only modest consumer relief (~18 cents/gallon) during a smaller, more contained Ukraine-related shock with a clearer end path. This current disruption is deemed structurally larger and more intractable.
• Sustainable return to pre-conflict oil prices requires reopening the Strait of Hormuz, restoring Iraqi output, and normalizing Gulf shipping insurance — none of which reserve draws can achieve. Recent events (e.g., installation of a new Supreme Leader amid public assassination threats from U.S. and Israeli officials) make de-escalation even harder.

We are taking cues from the 2022 playbook when prices have gone to extremes. We are pairing risk down as both bullish and bearish headline news is pushing energy markets to extremes which we noted above on. Energy markets are very familiar with extreme prices moves in early March. To the contrary, on  March 8, 2020 crude oil opened down -35% due to a production agreement with OPEC and Russia, with OPEC increasing production sending prices spiraling on their way to infamous negative -$40 per bbl all time low in April 2020 due to Covid. In summary we are advising customers to keep their sales cycle short, buy what you need and price their customers on what they buy and sell through it before the next load or contract to mitigate risks.

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Electricity Market Update

• March 2026 NYMEX expired at $2.969/MMBtu.
• According to the recently updated U.S. Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Pipeline Projects Tracker, pipeline projects finished in 2025 added about 6.3 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas capacity in the United States. Roughly 85% of that increase—around 5.3 Bcf/d—serves the South Central region, including the Gulf Coast, where rising demand, especially from LNG facilities, is concentrated. Most of the added capacity links new and existing production sources with consumers in that area.

• On February 24, 2016, the first LNG shipment left the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal, launching U.S. participation in the global LNG export market. Since then, the United States has grown into the world’s top LNG exporter, surpassing Australia and Qatar. Export volumes climbed from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016 to 15.0 Bcf/d in 2025, with projections in the February Short-Term Energy Outlook indicating they could rise above 18.1 Bcf/d by 2027. This rapid growth has been driven by plentiful domestic gas supplies, competitive feedgas prices, adaptable export contract structures, rising global demand, and strong investment conditions that have encouraged expansion of U.S. LNG facilities.

• Recent AI models continue to signal a major weather pattern shift around mid‑March, with a strong cold outbreak expected to follow the upcoming heat wave. The models highlight warming patterns similar to those seen in late February 1972, when temperatures spiked into the 70s after extreme cold but then quickly dropped again. The estimation is that, despite short‑term warmth, a significant cold surge is likely to return by mid‑month.

Factors impacting the natural gas markets currently:

• We are now in withdrawal season and our biggest drivers for price volatility are weather and production rates.
• Recent volatility has been attributed to weather forecasts which impact demand, and storage injections.

Action Advice: We recommend checking in frequently with your account manager.

Other rate options include Basis Only or NYMEX Lock deals to separate the two elements of your natural gas supply price to look for potential value vs standard Fixed pricing. For those who want to float their NYMEX, consider a cap and floor structure to economically manage your risk. Ask your Account Manager for details.

March 2026 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $2.969/MMBtu
Last month: February 2026 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $7.460/MMBtu
Last year: March 2025 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $3.906/MMBtu

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