Energy Market Update: April 2026

The Shipley Energy Commercial Solutions Team is excited to share the April Energy Market Update to inform you of trends, weather, and other factors impacting the energy market.

Read the March 2026 Energy Market Update ->

Skip to:

• Natural Gas Update
• Petroleum Update
• Electricity Update

Natural Gas Market Update

• April 2026 NYMEX expired at $3.095/MMBtu.
• US LNG exports increased in 2025 and are expected to grow with additional upcoming projects. See below for historical US LNG exports over the last few decades. Currently, the U.S. exports over 15% of its daily production.

• Recent forecasts are showing the possibility of a large-scale warmer-than-normal cooling degree day season starting in May. Rain may contribute to cooler weather in early summer. As of now, it’s a fairly bullish forecast regarding CDD’s this summer.

Factors impacting the natural gas markets currently:

• We are now in injection season and our biggest drivers for price volatility are weather and power generation
• The spread is widening between Henry Hub and International gas markets due to the impacts of the Strait of Hormuz being shut down, and the attack on Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar which destroyed 17% of Qatar’s total export capacity
• An additional risk is added to winter gas with the potential for upward pricing due to increased demand for US LNG in Europe and Asia

Action Advice:

We recommend locking in for longer terms (12-18-24 months) that would remove exposure to winter price risk.

Other rate options include Basis Only or NYMEX Lock deals to separate the two elements of your natural gas supply price to look for potential value vs standard Fixed pricing. For those who want to float their NYMEX, consider a cap and floor structure to economically manage your risk. Ask your Account Manager for details.

April 2026 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $3.095/MMBtu
Last month: March 2026 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $2.969/MMBtu
Last year: April 2025 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $3.950/MMBtu

Contact An Advisor ->

Petroleum & Refined Products

Following one of the coldest winters in recent memory, U.S. distillate inventories entered March already in a hole. Nationally, stocks sat at 119.9 million barrels — roughly 2% below the five-year seasonal average. In the Northeast, the shortfall is sharper: PADD 1 distillate inventories were just 27.4 million barrels, well below the five-year average of 32.6 million barrels and down ~900,000 barrels year-over-year. The heating season did its job, but it left the region with considerably less of a buffer than we’d normally carry into spring.

Now, just as stocks are lean, demand is accelerating. Domestic trucking freight is picking up as the seasonal cycle turns. Construction resumes, agricultural hauling kicks in, and consumer goods shipments ramp heading into the warmer months. This is the normal spring freight surge, but this year it’s landing on a market with materially below-average inventory levels and tightening import availability. Atlantic Basin product cargoes are being pulled toward Asia rather than the East Coast, driving PADD 1 distillate imports down to just 104,000 barrels per day. Diesel crack spreads surged to levels not seen since 2022, a clear signal of how tight the physical market has become.

Compounding the domestic picture: a major explosion at Valero’s Port Arthur, TX refinery on March 23 knocked out its 47,000 bpd diesel hydrotreater, removing significant Gulf Coast processing capacity from an already strained market. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI above $100/barrel for the first time since 2022, with Brent posting its largest monthly gain since 1988. Session highs reached $119.48 crude, $4.47/gallon heating oil. The IEA coordinated the largest emergency reserve release in history (400 million barrels) but at 20 million barrels per day of disrupted global supply, that is a buffer, not a solution. National on-highway diesel reached $5.375/gallon for the week of March 24.

Institutional views are divergent but skewed toward sustained near-term strength. Morgan Stanley sees crude staying in the $100–$110 range for two to three months minimum, with normalization taking at least a month post-ceasefire. Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 Brent average to $85/bbl and warns prices could stay in triple digits for years if the Strait remains a persistent threat. The EIA’s base case has Brent above $95/bbl through Q2 before falling toward $70 by year-end. A positive note heading into spring: the EPA confirmed the E15 summer fuel waiver for the fifth consecutive year, effective May 1, providing several cents per gallon of relief at the pump.

Bottom line: Post-winter stocks are lean, import barrels are scarce, the freight cycle is turning, and a refinery outage removed capacity at exactly the wrong time. The forward curve, with October WTI near $77 and well below prompt, signals the market expects relief as the year progresses, but the next few months carry real supply risk. We are taking cues from the 2022 playbook: keep your sales cycle short, buy what you need, and price through inventory before the next load or contract. April 6, the Trump administration’s deadline for the Strait of Hormuz, is the next critical catalyst. Weather forecasts and import arrival data will dictate the near-term moves.

Contact Shipley Energy ->

Electricity Market Update