Need a different solution?
We’re here to help!
Our team is here to help!
Deliveries you can count on!
The Shipley Energy Commercial Solutions Team is excited to share the October Energy Market Update to inform you of trends, weather, and other factors impacting the energy market.
Read the September 2025 Energy Market Update ->
Skip to:
As we move deeper into the fall heating season, petroleum markets are navigating a complex landscape of strong refining activity, supply disruptions, geopolitical risks, and shifting weather patterns. These dynamics will shape pricing and availability over the coming weeks and could set the tone for the early winter period.
Crude prices have remained relatively steady in recent weeks, with WTI trading near $60 per barrel and Brent around a $3-$4 premium per barrel. Refinery utilization remains elevated at 92.4%, with throughput roughly 800,000–900,000 barrels per day above last year as refiners focus on distillate production ahead of winter.
Despite this strong refining environment, a series of unplanned outages and seasonal maintenance projects across major Gulf Coast and West Coast facilities are expected to limit near-term product output. OPEC+ will also modestly increase production in November, aiming to reclaim market share without significantly disrupting prices. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production remains near record highs, helping offset some of these supply pressures.
Distillate inventories remain slightly below seasonal norms, positioning heating oil markets for potential price volatility if colder weather arrives sooner or demand spikes above expectations.
Forecast models currently point to warmer-than-average conditions across much of the eastern U.S. through the rest of October, which could delay the start of peak heating demand. However, forecasters expect a return to colder, more seasonable temperatures by mid-to-late November, which could accelerate drawdowns and push prices higher as winter approaches.
The petroleum market remains stable for now but is likely to tighten as we approach winter. Proactive inventory management, early purchasing strategies, and flexible pricing plans can help customers navigate potential volatility and protect budgets during the heating season.
September continued the mild meteorological trend of August, with average high and low temperatures around 73°/60° for the region. Despite this, electricity prices climbed steadily throughout the month. The 12-month electricity price at the start of the month was $45.85/MWh in Ohio and finished at $48.01/MWh, reflecting a 4.71% increase. In PA, it increased 4.91% from $49.94/MWh to $52.39. Longer-term pricing showed a similar but more muted trend: 36-month prices rose 3.48% in Ohio (from $47.62 to $49.28) and 3.64% in PA (from $52.14 to $54.05). We’re now into the higher capacity rates (started 6/1/2025). For many customers this will make up a substantial portion of their all-in price and is not going to decrease for at least the next 20 months.
We continue to see market fundamentals that are potentially worrisome for energy buyers:
The wholesale energy markets watch these factors, and changes can push prices up or down on a daily basis. Based on where we stand now, we recommend evaluating these strategies:
Your to-do list heading into winter:
Want to help your business navigate the current market? Get started with your Shipley Energy Advisor today!
As we move through October, several key factors are shaping the natural gas market — from changing storage trends and shifting price forecasts to new LNG export capacity coming online. Here’s a look at what’s driving market activity this month.
The $5.25 NYMEX Cap for the December 2025 – February 2026 term has become popular with the recent market sell-off. We recommend checking in with your account manager for pricing.
Other rate options include Basis Only or NYMEX Lock deals to separate the two elements of your natural gas supply price to look for potential value vs standard Fixed pricing. For those who want to float their NYMEX, consider a cap and floor structure to economically manage your risk. Ask your Account Manager for details.
October 2025 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $2.835/MMBtu
Last month: September 2025 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $2.867/MMBtu
Last year: October 2024 Natural Gas NYMEX Settlement Price: $2.585/MMBtu
Disclaimer: The market update is intended solely for informational purposes only. Shipley Energy Company does not warrant or attest to its accuracy. All actions and judgments taken in response to this report are the recipient’s sole responsibility. Shipley Energy Company shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from these market updates.
